🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still