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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd